ISLAMABAD/NEW DELHI, May 5 (Reuters) – Since their 2019 confrontation, both India and Pakistan have substantially enhanced their military strength, raising the likelihood of escalation even in smaller conflicts, according to defense analysts and former officers.
Pakistan alleges that India is preparing for a military operation in response to New Delhi accusing Islamabad of involvement in a recent deadly attack on Indian tourists in Kashmir. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has promised retribution against those behind the attack, claiming they will be punished “beyond their imagination.”
Islamabad has refuted the allegations and warned it would retaliate if provoked.
Back in 2019, tensions spiked when India launched air raids within Pakistani territory following a deadly bombing on its military personnel in Kashmir, claiming it had destroyed militant training camps. In response, Pakistan carried out airstrikes of its own and downed an Indian fighter jet during the ensuing exchange over two days.
The two nuclear-armed nations have fought three full-scale wars—in 1948, 1965, and 1971—and have had numerous smaller skirmishes, mostly revolving around Kashmir, a territory both claim. They obtained nuclear arms in the 1990s, making the region one of the world’s most volatile hotspots.
Experts believe neither country would resort to nuclear weapons unless cornered, but even a limited military conflict carries significant risks. Analysts point out that future clashes would likely involve advanced air combat technologies—jets, missiles, or drones—where both countries have become evenly matched. However, India’s superior resources could give it an advantage in a prolonged confrontation.
Frank O’Donnell, a South Asia specialist at the Stimson Center in Washington, noted that leaders on both sides now appear more willing to escalate conflicts than before 2019, having previously avoided nuclear escalation. Still, he warned that the lack of mutual understanding regarding escalation thresholds could result in unintended consequences.
Both countries have upgraded their arsenals since 2019, giving rise to new conventional strike possibilities. Muhammad Faisal, a security analyst based at the University of Technology Sydney, remarked that each side believes it holds an upper hand now—but only actual combat would reveal the truth.
India attributes its limitations in 2019 to reliance on outdated Soviet-era jets. Since then, it has acquired 36 state-of-the-art French Rafale fighters, with more on the way for its naval forces. In response, Pakistan has received batches of China’s advanced J-10 fighter jets, comparable to the Rafale, totaling at least 20 units, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
The Rafale is equipped with long-range Meteor missiles, while the J-10 carries similar PL-15 missiles, according to a Pakistani defense official speaking anonymously. To address vulnerabilities in air defense exposed during the 2019 clash, India procured Russia’s highly regarded S-400 missile defense system, while Pakistan acquired the Chinese HQ-9 system, modeled after Russia’s S-300.
Former Indian Air Force Vice Marshal Anil Golani, now head of the Centre for Air Power Studies, acknowledged that India has improved its military position since 2019. However, he believes neither nation is seeking an all-out war, despite public pressure for decisive action.
China also factors heavily into the equation, being a close military ally of Pakistan and a geopolitical rival to India. With the U.S. urging calm between the two South Asian neighbors, any conflict would be closely monitored for insights into Chinese air power. Notably, China’s J-10 and its PL-15 missile have yet to be tested in actual combat.
Faisal suggested that this could become a proxy comparison between Western and Chinese military technology. India also faces strategic dilemmas—such as how many air squadrons to allocate to a Pakistan front while also maintaining readiness along its tense border with China. The two Asian giants fought a short war in 1962 and had another clash as recently as 2022 in the Himalayas.
Pakistan still maintains a fleet of U.S.-made F-16 fighters from earlier defense ties with Washington. These jets were used in 2019, prompting India to protest to the U.S. This time, Pakistan is expected to prioritize use of the more modern J-10s to avoid diplomatic fallout and capitalize on their capabilities.
Analysts suggest any new conflict may lean more toward missile or drone strikes to reduce the risk of pilot losses. India has added Israeli Heron Mark 2 drones and has ordered American Predator drones, while Pakistan has secured Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones and the more advanced Akinci model.
Amid rising tensions, Pakistan announced the successful test of a 450-kilometer-range surface-to-surface missile on Saturday, reaffirming its readiness to defend national security. Pakistan’s missile arsenal includes various short- and medium-range systems deployable from land, sea, or air. India has not officially responded, though it possesses the BrahMos supersonic missile and the Agni series of long-range ballistic missiles.
The 2019 conflict nearly spiraled out of control, with missile strikes narrowly avoided after diplomatic intervention by the U.S. Former Pakistani Air Force pilot Kaiser Tufail believes India might pursue a more assertive approach this time, increasing the risks. Prime Minister Modi previously stated that the absence of Rafale jets in 2019 was a disadvantage, implying the outcome could have been different.
“If another conflict goes beyond what happened in 2019, the danger becomes much greater,” said Tufail. “A clash between nuclear-armed states is incredibly perilous.”
