China’s Nuclear Arsenal Growing Rapidly, Projected to Reach 1,500 Warheads by 2035: SIPRI

China nuclear weapons on display during a military event.

China nuclear weapons development is accelerating at a record pace, drawing international concern over the shifting balance of global power. A new report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reveals that China is on track to dramatically expand its nuclear arsenal, potentially reaching 1,500 warheads by 2035 if current trends continue.

In the SIPRI Yearbook 2025, analysts reveal that China is currently adding around 100 nuclear warheads per year. The country is believed to possess at least 600 warheads as of now, and if this trend continues, the number could climb to 1,500 by 2035.

This rapid growth reflects one of the most ambitious expansions of nuclear capability in recent history. The modernization of China nuclear weapons includes not only increasing the number of warheads but also investing heavily in related infrastructure, such as new launch and storage facilities.

SIPRI notes that China is constructing approximately 350 new silos for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). These are being built across three major desert regions in the north and three mountainous areas in the east. If completed, this expansion could give China an ICBM force comparable in size to that of the United States or Russia, although the overall number of warheads would still be smaller.

Supporting these findings, a 2023 report by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) estimated that China already had over 500 nuclear warheads and is on track to exceed 1,000 by 2030. The agency also warned that China might be shifting away from its traditional no-first-use (NFU) nuclear policy, raising the possibility of adopting a more aggressive stance that includes the potential for limited nuclear conflict.

The continued expansion of China nuclear weapons capabilities has sparked concern among global security analysts and policymakers. SIPRI’s findings highlight the urgent need for renewed international dialogue and stronger arms control efforts to manage rising tensions and maintain strategic stability.